September 15, 2015 | Graham

First poll says Turnbull can get the blue collar voter



Gary Morgan is the first pollster out with a result, using his SMS methodology. His release is produced below.

Despite my suspicion that Turnbull will have trouble with the blue-collar conservatives, this poll shows him doing very well with Ind/Other supporters – 68% Turnbull to 29% Shorten.

The Liberal vote has also coalesced hard behind Turnbull with 86% favouring him versus 7% favouring Shorten.

Greens give it to Turnbull 57% to 38% and Labor supporters 50% to 44%. Shades of Mike Baird.

Here is the release.

New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gets immediate mandate from Australian electors as Better PM: Turnbull 70% cf. Shorten 24%

New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has received an immediate mandate from Australian electors as Better PM: Malcolm Turnbull 70% cf. 24% Opposition Leader Bill Shorten with 6% of electors indicating either someone else, neither candidate or they couldn’t say according to a special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted this afternoon with 1,204 Australian electors.

Turnbull leads all key Demographics

Analysis by Gender

Men: Turnbull 72% cf. Shorten 23%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 49%;

Women: Turnbull 67% cf. Shorten 24%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 43%.

Analysis by Party – Turnbull leads among L-NP, ALP, Greens & Others supporters

L-NP supporters: Turnbull 86% cf. Shorten 7%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 79%;

ALP supporters: Turnbull 50% cf. Shorten 44%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 6%;

Greens supporters: Turnbull 57% cf. Shorten 38%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 19%;

Ind/ Others supporters: Turnbull 68% cf. Shorten 29%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 39%.

Analysis by State – Turnbull leads clearly across all States & Territories

NSW: Turnbull 72% cf. Shorten 19%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 53%;

Victoria: Turnbull 69% cf. Shorten 27%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 42%;

Queensland: Turnbull 69% cf. Shorten 24%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 45%;

WA: Turnbull 76% cf. Shorten 20%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 56%;

SA: Turnbull 67% cf. Shorten 26%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 41%;

Tasmania: Turnbull 65% cf. Shorten 34%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 31%;

ACT: Turnbull 61% cf. Shorten 30%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 31%.

Gary Morgan says:

“Australian electors have given a massive mandate to new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on his first day as Prime Minister – preferring Turnbull 70% cf. 24% Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in a special snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted this afternoon on who Australian electors regard as the Better PM.

“Turnbull leads clearly amongst both genders, across all States & Territories and leads Shorten across supporters of both major parties. L-NP supporters have given Turnbull a huge show of support: Turnbull 86% cf. Shorten 7%. Even more remarkably, a majority of ALP supporters say Turnbull is the Better PM: Turnbull 50% cf. 44% ALP Leader Shorten. Greens supporters have also swung behind the new Prime Minister: Turnbull 57% cf. Shorten 38%.

“Today’s result places immediate pressure on Opposition Leader Bill Shorten over the coming few days as electors in the West Australian seat of Canning get set to cast their vote on Australia’s new Malcolm Turnbull-led Government – the Coalition should walk it in in the Canning by-election.

“The new Malcolm Turnbull-led Government must now tell the electorate how they will reverse the recent decline in Australia’s GDP growth (only 0.2% in June Quarter 2015).

“In addition real unemployment and under-employment (a total of 16.6% (2.12 million Australians) are either unemployed or under-employed in August 2015) needs to be significantly reduced while the cash economy, wages rorts (as exposed by the recent 7-Eleven & United Petroleum scandals) and union/employer corruption need to be the top priorities in establishing ‘a fair days pay for a fair days work’.”

View Electorate Reports

 



Posted by Graham at 4:51 pm | Comments (2) |
Filed under: Uncategorized

2 Comments

  1. ” Gary Morgan is the first pollster out with a result, using his SMS methodology.”

    The results are too good to be true. An explanation of the SMS methodology used would be in order.

    Furthermore, the people polled have forgotten about Malcolm’s bad performance when he was Opposition Leader — refer the polls from that period for confirmation.

    Comment by Rayvic — September 16, 2015 @ 10:18 am

  2. Turnbull might convince some blue collar voters that he’s on their side, until the gloves come off and the assault on social democracy intensifies. He’s neoliberal leading a neoliberal party, and he only won the spill by 5 votes, the loony right vultures are still waiting for the first sign of weakness.

    It’s highly unlikely that Turnbull, or any future PM, will be as incompetent as Abbott.

    Comment by RussellW — September 18, 2015 @ 10:16 am

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