July 09, 2013 | Graham

Morgan and Newspoll confirm our polling

Morgan has Labor at 54.5% to the Coalitions 45.5% and Newspoll has it 50/50 two-party preferred. That confirms our polling of last week where the positions of the parties had returned to where they were in October 2010.

The results, averaging these two polls, would be somewhere around a 52.5% Labor victory. It could be a bit lower than that, as Morgan uses a mix of face-to-face, SMS and Internet polling. I suspect the second two capture enthusiasm to some extent, as well as voting intention.

But, however you read it, the odds favour a Labor victory.

What that means is that expectations, which now favour a coalition victory (as demonstrated in the betting markets which give Labor only around a 25% chance of winning), will now start to favour Labor. And when that happens voters will start to think about what another term of Labor would mean.

A Rudd government at the next election would lead to nine years of Labor government, assuming that the parliament after this runs its full term. That would make it one of the longest-running governments in Australia’s history.

Posted by Graham at 7:54 am | Comments (3) |
Filed under: Uncategorized


  1. Hardly surprising Graham, given Kevin Rudd’s extremely popular move to democratise and reform new Labour, and his new found support for marriage equality.
    Tony Abbott has to get back on the front foot and start releasing fully costed policies, or chance falling further behind in the polls.
    And don’t forget to adjust for a very possible 3% error either way!
    One can and does believe Julia Gillard and her commitment, not to do to Kevin Rudd what was done to her, and attempt to destabilise the party and its leader from within.
    Those that couldn’t countenance that in prospect, have simply folded the tent and moved on?
    Tony Abbott can follow the lead of the tea party, and refuse to move with the times and current public sentiment; and in so doing, suffer the electoral consequences!
    President Obama shouldn’t have won the last election, and wouldn’t have but for the fact that the conservative forces seem to be mired in the political past.
    A week is a long time in politics and a week ago, all Tony Abbott had to do to win the keys to the lodge, was to keep on breathing?
    Now he has to fight for them and may not be up to the task?
    Simply because it may require him to move himself and the party he leads into the 21st century; and or, fall into step with, (extremely unpalatable for him) current community values?
    The well worn negativity is now no longer working or is just being ignored, simply because it has been well and truly overdone; and or, most people have just simply stopped listening to the patent BS?
    Maybe it is not too late for the Lib’s to reinstate Malcolm (return bill) Turnbull and vastly improve their electoral prospects in so doing, and indeed, give the fight to someone, with an intellect and an ego, superior to that of an extremely clever Mr (redoubtable) Rudd.
    In which case, a delayed election date, would work far better for them than Labour?
    Alan B. Goulding.

    Comment by Alan B. Goulding — July 9, 2013 @ 11:09 am

  2. What an amazing change in the polls, it certainly demonstrates that Gillard was unpopular, not the party.

    How can we elect an Opposition that seems to believe that a liberal democratic government can “turn back” refugee boats, perhaps the Coalition thinks that there’s enough voters stupid enough to fall for the scam.
    It’s about time Abbott and his colleagues stopped the “Dad’s Army ” impersonations and presented the electors with some realistic policies.

    Comment by RussellW — July 9, 2013 @ 4:56 pm

  3. Rudd’s use of the “austerity word” and linking Abbott with Britian’s unpopular David Cameron was a clever move.

    Abbott wants to increase the GST and reduce the CO2 tax. People are asking how are they better off ?

    Both the major parties want to increase taxes and have not the intestinal fortitude to tax the finance system.

    Neither of our two party system are the answer.

    Comment by Ross — July 9, 2013 @ 6:56 pm

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.