According to new research, increase in CO2 emissions are more dependant on global temperature and soil moisture than what we burn in our industrial world. Not what you are likely to hear from the government.
CO2 is not in the driving seat, it is in the back seat.
Speaking at a seminar held by the Sydney Institute Professor Murry Sawlby, author of the text book Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics and an IPCC reviewer, outlined his research which was first delivered last week to an international climate conference and will appear in a peer reviewed journal later this year. You can listen to the podcast here.
I’ve listened to the podcast, and without seeing the charts he holds up it is difficult to get your head around the details of what he is saying, but it is broadly in line with what we knew from ice cores – that CO2 rises after the temperature rises. What surprised me was that the human contribution might be trivial.
Although man has been said to contribute somewhere around 3-5 percent of annual emissions, if you assume that all carbon sinks remain constant, then it only takes you 33 years at the lower figure to put out a figure equal to 100 percent of annual emissions. Because of the CO2 fertilisation effect which means plants grow faster with higher levels of CO2 and thus absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere, we know that one of the sinks is not constant, so that abatement will increase with emissions, but not to the full extent of the increase in emissions.
Apparently, based on observations, that is not what happens. As I say, I will have to delve more deeply into this one, but as Professor Sawlby says in his lecture – if you don’t understand and can’t predict carbon emissions you can’t model them, and apparently we don’t. Which means that the Global Climate Models can’t be relied upon and the science is anything but settled.
Note to Julia Gillard: stop talking crap. As Professor Sawlby also said “Anyone who thinks the science of this complex thing is settled is in Fantasia.”
Burning fossil fuel adds nearly four parts per million to the atmospheric carbon dioxide to the atmosphere each year. We cannot neglect that addition. The industrial revolution has increased the level from 260 to 380 parts per million. The item in doubt is the claimed multiplier effect of the carbon dioxide.
My concern is that in four or five generations from now all the fossil carbon will have been wasted. How will people then living produce the products that rely on fossil carbon as either a feedstock or a reducing agent?
Comment by John Turner — August 3, 2011 @ 11:18 pm
Although this the information in this thread is the equivalent to just putting the key into the door you wish to open, people like John know it is wrong. He could not wait until he knows what the information is, before denying it.
Not only that, he/they have a red herring to drag across the path, to distract the masses, just in case it’s true.
I wonder if the Johns of this world spend all day thinking about their next red herring, when yet another piece of the fairy tale is debunked.
Comment by Hasbeen — August 4, 2011 @ 12:01 am
Sorry but the whole point of Professor Murray Salby’s paper is that man-made emissions of CO2 are minute compared to the flows in and out of the carbon sinks and these flows are driven by temperature and soil measure changes. So you can neglect the additional CO2 made by man.
As to the crises about running out of fossil carbon you have to trust man’s track record of adaption and innovation. Scarcity causes rising prices causes technical innovation. The major car manufacturers are now all introducing electric cars as we either reach or have passed peak oil. Most likely in time coal will be replaced by nuclear power.
What we do know is that when governments interfere with market operations the costs to the ordinary person can be terrible. Just compare Argentina to Australia over the past 100 years.
Comment by Chris Golis — August 4, 2011 @ 12:14 am
Don’t care about Murry Salby and his anti-AGW associates from the University of Colorado – Judy Curry, Roger Pielke Snr and Roger Pielke Jnr.
Just tell when the fossil fuel industry and the rent boys plan to cease committing crimes against humanity and chewing the arse out of Momma Nature?
Comment by Dryblower — August 6, 2011 @ 10:36 am
Yeah Julia Gillard stop talking CRAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comment by Some random — August 22, 2011 @ 9:18 am