August 16, 2008 | Ronda Jambe

Georgia/Russia Conflict Forced Into Cold War Frame



Below is reprinted an article from FAIR, or Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting. It can also be found at:
http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=3596
I offer it here as an example of the distorted media coverage in the US. It is rather long and very US-centric, but presents the situation quite clearly. Perhaps readers can point out more balanced examples of how this story has been covered in Australia. Our Media Watch is not enough to keep the media fair and accuracy.
FAIR Media Advisory 8/14/08
U.S. corporate media frequently evoked the Cold War as a key to understanding the conflict between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia. This was certainly true of the media themselves, which generally placed black hats or white hats on the actors involved depending on whether they were allied with Moscow or Washington.
On August 11, NBC Nightly News anchor Brian Williams referred to “what’s being called the Russian blitz of the nation of Georgia, former Soviet republic that split away and is now threatening to split apart from within.” NBC reporter Jim Maceda followed up: “The powerful Russian war machine is moving ever deeper into Georgia, and teaching all of us really a lesson about what makes Russia tick.” Maceda then gave what has become the standard media template for describing the conflict:
“It started as a gamble by Georgia, the former Soviet republic and darling of the West: Move quickly into the reakaway pro-Russian enclave called South Ossetia and take back what is legally Georgia’s. But the plan failed. Instead, Russian forces invaded Georgia last week and crushed Georgian resistance. According to U.S.
military officials, Russia is out to decimate the U.S.-trained Georgian armed forces.”
Maceda concluded: “But after hundreds, perhaps thousands killed and tens of thousands displaced, tonight Georgians are asking, ‘When will the Russian bear stop?'”
But buried within this U.S. media narrative is an entirely different way to understand the conflict. In this reading, South Ossetia (like the similar enclave of Abkhazia) is an area that has been largely independent of Georgia ever since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Russian forces have been present in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia since the early 1990s, defending the separatist regions against Georgian attempts to forcibly incorporate the erritories. The situation has repeatedly broken out into open combat, most recently early this month, when fighting between Georgian and separatist forces escalated into full-scale efforts by Georgia to reclaim both breakaway territories.
Georgia’s military efforts–which involved, according to reports from Human Rights Watch (8/10/08, 8/14//08) and Western reporters on the scene (Washington Post, 8/12/08), intensive shelling of civilian areas–reportedly caused many noncombatant deaths and prompted a large proportion of the South Ossetian population to seek safety in Russia. It was this humanitarian crisis, coupled with Georgian attacks on Russian forces in the separatist areas, that Moscow cited as its justification for its military intervention. This does not suggest that Russian tactics are beyond criticism, or that a military response of this magnitude is justified.
Georgia’s contribution to the escalation of tensions in the region were not completely ignored by U.S. media, but its aggressive actions were often euphemized, as in AP’s reference to “a crackdown by Georgia last week” (8/11/08), and were rarely allowed to interfere with the preferred narrative of Georgia as victim of an expansionist Russia.
On CBS Evening News (8/11/08), Katie Couric asked correspondent Wyatt Andrews, “So how did this fighting start and what is it really all about?” Andrews’ response avoided the issue almost entirely, declaring: “What’s troubling about this war fought in a relatively unknown region is that none of the suffering here is about the enclave of Ossetia. This war is all about Russia and the message Russia is sending to the world.” Andrews went to explain that Russian Prime Minister Vladmir Putin “has been planning this attack on Georgia for years.”
Similar language was prevalent in media accounts that stressed Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s allegedly pro-democratic tendencies and Western education. (Saakashvili took power in a 2004 election in which he got more than 96 percent of the vote; he was re-elected in more competitive January 2008 balloting that was marred by state intimidation of opposition parties, according to an Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe report.) As the Los Angeles Times put it (8/13/08): “Russia has itched to strike at southern neighbor Georgia’s brash, Western-oriented leader, President Mikheil Saakashvili. And Saakashvili gave the Kremlin an opportunity when he sent troops into the separatist region of South Ossetia last week in an effort to reassert Georgia’s sovereignty.”
A few outlets did remind readers of Saakashvili’s crackdowns on dissent and independent media outlets (Los Angeles Times, 8/12/08; The Guardian, 8/14/08). But for the most part, the conflict was presented as black-and-white struggle between Moscow’s despotic aggression and Georgia’s pro-Western democracy. Any possible
alternative perspective was more often denounced than presented, as when a Washington Post editorial (8/12/08) declared that “the most urgent need is to see clearly what is taking place. As the crisis deepened, one could hear in Washington the usual attempts to blame the victim, as if Georgia somehow deserved this fate because its elected government had opted for friendly relations with the West.”
Actually, few in Washington seemed to be making a case for punishing Georgia for being friendly with the U.S. There was, however, competition among U.S. pundits for the most aggressive condemnation of Russia. Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen wrote (8/12/08), “Russia, as my grandmother could have told George W. Bush, always fights dirty.” Post columnist George Will (8/12/08), meanwhile, declared that “Russia’s aggression is really about the subordination of Georgia, a democratic, market-oriented U.S. ally.” L.A. Times columnist Max Boot (8/12/08) compared Russia to Nazi Germany–while allowing that the analogy “may appear overwrought.” Writing
in the Washington Post (8/11/08), Robert Kagan also made a comparison to Nazi Germany.
A striking feature of the coverage was the ability of pundits who have enthusiastically advocated for U.S. Invasions of sovereign countries, dismissing concerns that these would violate international law, to demand that Russia be punished for breaking that same law by violating Georgian sovereignty. These commentators seemed blissfully unaware of the contradiction, as when New York Times columnist William Kristol wrote (8/11/08) that “in Iraq, we and our Iraqi allies are on the verge of a strategic victory over the jihadists,” citing this as evidence that 2008 was “an auspicious year for freedom and democracy,” while two paragraphs later condemning the fact that “Russia has sent troops and tanks across an international border.” Kristol even cited Georgia’s eager participation in the violation of Iraq’s sovereignty as a primary reason that “we owe Georgia a serious effort to defend its sovereignty.”
Alternatives to the official media narrative were difficult to find outside of independent and foreign media (Just World News, 8/10/08; Real News Network, 8/12/08; Georgia Straight, 8/11/08; Guardian, 8/14/08). Hypocrisy, unfortunately, was much easier to find in corporate media coverage than disinterested humanitarian concern.



Posted by Ronda Jambe at 6:07 pm | Comments (2) |

August 13, 2008 | Graham

Georgia versus South Ossetia



Posted for, and written by Ivan Simic
On August 8, 2008, South Ossetia attracted world’s attention when Russian military forces entered Georgian territory, and seriously interfered in the Georgian-South Ossetian unresolved conflict. This conflict is well known to the world, yet, current Russian military intervention helped amplify the dispute.
South Ossetia is a small region in the South Caucasus within the territory of Georgia. She has been a de facto independent from Georgia since its declaration of independence as the Republic of South Ossetia in 1990; however, South Ossetia continues to be part of Georgia, since it was not diplomatically recognized by any member of the United Nations.
Georgia was part of the Soviet Union from 1922 until its independence in 1991. Since its independence from the Soviet Union, Georgia has been facing many difficulties: first, there was civil unrest and economic crises, then came a Revolution in 2003, when then President of Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze was ousted from power; and, finally, the unresolved secessionist conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia; Russia’s allied regions.
We may recall the genesis of the current situation which has been precipitated by the 1918-1920 Georgian-Ossetian conflict. Later, in 1922 the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast was created after Soviet occupation of Georgia. In the eighties, the conflict was followed by rising nationalism in the former Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic, the South Ossetian desire for greater autonomy, Ossetian demands for unification with Russia’s North Ossetia, and persistent Ossetian declarations of independence.
In 1989, from ethno-political conflict, the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict evolved to civil war in January 1991. War was fought between Georgian government forces and ethnic Georgian militias on one side and South Ossetian secessionists and North Ossetian volunteers on the other, with periodic participation of Russian military forces. Russian officials including the then President of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin made supporting statements for Ossetians. The war ended in June 1992 when the Head of the State Council of Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze and the Russian President Boris Yeltsin met to discuss the question of South Ossetia. By some estimates, around 3000 people were killed in that war.
In May 2004, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili offered humanitarian aid to both Georgian and Ossetian population in South Ossetia and promised to give the region broad autonomy; however, that did not stop violence. New conflict between South Ossetians and Georgians forces accrued in mid June 2004 when Georgian forces closed Ossetian main supply market for tax-free goods from Russia in order to stop smuggling. In retaliation, South Ossetian forces blocked the highway between Georgia and Russia. Later, Georgian forces intercepted Russian convoy with military equipment, including missiles. This interception created tension between Georgia and Russia, and the subsequent incarceration of around fifty Georgian peacekeepers by South Ossetian militants. In mid August 2004, a ceasefire agreement was signed, but just few days later, was violated.
In January 2005, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili presented a new plan for resolving the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict. This proposal included broader forms of autonomy, including a constitutional guarantee of free and directly elected local self-governance. Among others, President Saakashvili stated that South Ossetia’s parliament would have control over issues such as culture, education, social policy, economic policy, public order, organization of local self-governance and environmental protection. No agreement was signed, although the United States government and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) supported Georgian action plan.
In September 2006, South Ossetian forces opened fire at a Georgian helicopter carrying Irakli Okruashvili, the Minister of Defence of Georgia. South Ossetian de facto government confirmed their troops were responsible for the attack, alleging that the helicopter had entered their air space. Later in September 2007, Irakli Okruashvili was arrested on charges of extortion, money laundering, and abuse of power while still Georgia’s Defence Minister. A Georgian court found him guilty and sentenced him to 11 years imprisonment in absentia. However, Okruashvili did not go to jail, he was granted political asylum in France.
In May 2007, Dmitry Sanakoyev was appointed by the President of Georgia the Head of South Ossetian Provisional Administrative Entity. Sanakoyev’s new resolution plan earned approval from the United States government, but not Russia’s. This move alarmed the de facto authorities in South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali, and without any delay, South Ossetian separatists ordered that traffic to ethnic Georgian villages be blocked, and threatened to overthrow Sanakoyev’s government by force.
In July 2007, Georgia set up a State Commission, chaired by the Georgian Prime Minister, Zurab Noghaideli, to develop South Ossetia’s autonomous status within the Georgian State.
In August 2007, a new conflict occurred: the Georgian missile incident. This time incident was between Georgia and Russia. Georgian government said that two Russian fighter jets violated its airspace and fired a missile, which fell on the edge of a village of Tsitelubani, near the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone, but did not explode. Russia denied this allegation and said that Georgia may have fired the missile on their own territory as a way of provoking tensions in the region. This Georgia-Russia incident is not an isolated issue, there were several crises, incidents and accusations in the past, including: the 2004 Adjara crisis, the 2006 North Ossetia sabotages, the 2006 Russian ban of Moldovan and Georgian wines, the 2006 Kodori crisis, the 2006 Georgian-Russian espionage controversy and the March 2007 Georgia helicopter attack incident.
On August 1, 2008, after two months of continuous Georgian-South Ossetian fighting; the South Ossetia war between Georgia, Russia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia began.
On August 8, following several days of heavy fighting between Georgian army and South Ossetian militants, in which around 1500 civilians, 15 Russian peacekeepers, and dozens of South Ossetian militants were killed. Russia responded by moving its troops across the Georgian border, bringing tanks and artillery into South Ossetia.
According to Russian officials, their main aim was to defend Russian citizens in South Ossetia, and force the Georgian government to accept peace and restore the status quo. Russian officials also stated that its army was acting within its peacekeeping mission in South Ossetia, and in line with the mandate issued by the international community. Tbilisi also stated that it was now responding to Russia’s aggression.
On August 9, conflict between Russia and Georgia escalated, and on August 10, Georgian troops retreated from the capital of South Ossetia.
In relation to the current situation in Georgia, the international community issued many statements: In general, it is calling confronted parties to respect International Law, and for an immediate end to the armed clashes and resumption of direct talks. In New York, at Russia’s request, an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council was held, but failed to reach an agreement on immediately halting of fighting.
Both Georgia and Russia traded counter-accusations; whiles Georgia accused Russia for invasion of land, air, and sea, Russia accused Georgia of genocide against South Ossetians.
According to the latest development there are some pertinent questions that should be asked; these include:
Will the United States seize the opportunity in the current situation in Georgia as an excuse to invade Iran, since they are fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan? By the way, Iran is right in the neighbourhood.
Will the NATO and the EU intervene, and in which form?
Will Russia use the Kosovo situation as an example for South Ossetia?
Is this war foundation of larger Euro-Asian conflicts?
It is still not quite clear what will happen next; however one thing is obvious no country will dare to use military force against Russia, especially not in isolation.



Posted by Graham at 9:30 pm | Comments (5) |

August 11, 2008 | Graham

Quiggin: cleaned-up or cleaned-out?



Yesterday, Jennifer Marohasy posted a blog asking for peer reviewed scientific papers that:
“1. examine the causal link between anthropogenic carbon dioxide and warming, and

2. quantify the extent of the warming from anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
This would seem like a brave call, but Jennifer’s been having some success lately. Her suggestion thatf the Coorong should be flooded with sea water is moving closer to becoming official government policy, so she could be on a roll.
Later that day she left the same post on John Quiggin’s blog. Quiggin responded with typical do-my-homework-for-me insouciance, referring her to the IPCC 4th report, “particularly Chapter 9”. Nothing like a specific reference to a specific paper, is there?
I would have thought there would be lots of papers investigating both issues, although, given the range of the IPCCs temperature scenarios, nothing definitive. Others appear confident that there aren’t. Michael Duffy has upped the ante, offering $1,000 to anyone who produces such a paper.
Even though Quiggin already earns $256,000 p.a. as a federation fellow, this would appear to be an easy windfall, well above even his usual hourly rate of pay. And the added benefit would be to clean-up and clean-out both Marohasy and Duffy. If he doesn’t rise to the challenge, then he will be the one cleaned-up.
There have been a couple of responses on Quiggins’ website. James Haughton suggests “Callendar, G.S., 1938: The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 64, 223–237.” And “D. J . HOFMANN, J. H. BUTLER, E. J . DLUGOKENCKY, J . W. ELKINS, K. MASARIE, S. A. MONTZKA and P. TANS, The role of carbon dioxide in climate forcing from 1979 to 2004: introduction of the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index, Tellus B, Vol 58, Issue 5, pp.614-619, 2006.”
Ken Miles suggests “Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years by Thomas Crowley. It was published in Science (July 14, 2000 Science, 289: 270-277).”
I think they are all going to badly need a judging panel if they are to prise Duffy’s money from his fingers.
[Note added at 20:20: I missed a post on John Quiggin’s thread where he nominates three papers, before Duffy even makes the challenge, and 8 hours after he fobs Marohasy off. The papers are:
J.D. Annan and J.C. Hargreaves (2006), Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (6): Art. No. L06704
Harvey, L.D.D. (2000), ‘Constraining the Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Sensitivity’, Climatic Change, 44(4), 413-18.
Stainforth, D.A. et al. (2005), ‘Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases.’, Nature, 433(7024), 403-06.
I’ve asked him for a copy of these papers. He wants an apology. I’m not sure what for, but you can see his comments below.]
There is a rash of offers of money on various global warming issues. JunkScience has The Ultimate Global Warming Challenge with a prize of $500,000. Their challenge is to disprove:

UGWC Hypothesis 1
Manmade emissions of greenhouse gases do not discernibly, significantly and predictably cause increases in global surface and tropospheric temperatures along with associated stratospheric cooling.
UGWC Hypothesis 2
The benefits equal or exceed the costs of any increases in global temperature caused by manmade greenhouse gas emissions between the present time and the year 2100, when all global social, economic and environmental effects are considered.

Economist [correction, should have been Engineer] Michael Economides is also apparently offering $10,000 for anyone who can find “ONE peer reviewed paper that shows that incremental anthropogenic CO2 can cause the multi-degree temperature increases that have been ascribed to it. What I need to see are calculations showing this through any discernible law of heat transfer or thermodynamics.” [His email is mje@economidesconsultants.com if you want to correspond with him].
There could be more money than I thought in global warming.



Posted by Graham at 2:20 pm | Comments (24) |
Filed under: Environment

August 10, 2008 | Graham

The Horseman – give the boy a budget



If it wasn’t for Australia’s housing boom The Horseman, Stephen Kastrissios’ first feature film, may never have been made. It was financed out of the sale of a house he bought just a few years ago.
Which gives me a problem: how do you review a movie made for just $80,000? For the investment it is a brilliant success. It was shot “guerilla style” which meant no elaborate sets and lighting and limited rehearsals. Kastrissios was director, producer and screen writer. The actors worked for a share of the profits, or nothing, depending on your assessment of the movie’s prospects. So there is commitment and passion, and some of the scenes work very well as a result.
But does the movie actually work as a movie, rather than a demonstration of what you can do with small budgets? On this basis the answer is no. The Blair Witch Project, produced on a budget of US$35,000, was a commercial success, grossing US$248 million world-wide, shows that small budgets can produce very successful movies. The Horseman won’t come close to this in commercial terms, but that doesn’t make it exactly a failure either.
I think the major flaw in the movie was the script. Kastrissios was obviously conscious of this when he told the audience in the Q&A after the screening that he admired the work of Mel Gibson as a director because his films lacked a well-developed plot, relying rather on raw emotional urgency to carry the action. This technique might work for Gibson – I wouldn’t rate Apocalypto too highly, and The Passion of the Christ had an historical and religious reality outside the artifice of the flim giving the action depth and resonance – but it doesn’t work for The Horseman.
Perhaps it could have worked if the violence had been more artful. I did find myself laughing at the end, in the way that you could at the end of Carrie when the hand comes up from the mound, but there weren’t enough of those sorts of surprises. And smart action like that takes time and money.
Or it might have worked if the plot didn’t miss a few opportunities. The central character, Christian (played by Peter Marshall, who carries the film, appearing in just about every scene) creates mayhem up and down the Queensland coast, and at one stage we see news footage that had me wondering for a while whether the central tension would be whether he could hunt down all the bad guys before the police hunted him down. The police do turn up, and it is a surprise, but adds to plot tension only momentarily, and then towards the end.
The other opportunity missed was the relationship between Christian and Alice (played by Caroline Marohasy). If Alice had not been in the movie at all, I don’t think it would have made any dramatic difference. The character could have been a foil to the constant violence, or a tool to explore Christian’s mental state, but in the end was just another prop to hang a fight sequence on. Marohasy did the best she could with the material – a creditable debut – but there could have been much more for her to work with.
Would I recommend The Horseman? Yes. Despite its faults it did grab me, and I had to consciously relax my hamstrings a number of times as I got drawn in. It’s also likely to be the first chapter in a creditable movie career for the director, and Marohasy. It might even be the leg-up that Peter Marshall needs to boost his career beyond simple jobbing actor and occasional taxi driver.



Posted by Graham at 9:32 pm | Comments (2) |
Filed under: Australian Politics

August 10, 2008 | Ronda Jambe

Under the Moruya Moon (7)



One last visit to see the restored goat shed before I go. We head off from chilly Canberra, planning to watch the Olympic opening spectacular in the also chilly brick house. It is all the colder now that the end room has been stripped of its lining and is open to the rafters. Another problem waiting for our builder.
How impressive was the Olympic opening – highlighting Chinese inventions like paper, moveable type, the compass? A true orgy of multi-media, planned to be seen electronically and live. They sensibly skimmed over another Chinese invention – gunpowder.
Our builder has done a great job of closing off the windows, and lining the central ceiling with pine. All that’s left of the damage from all the holes in the old tin roof is the mould on some gyprock. How many times did I empty buckets near that hole, always worried if it was overflowing while I’d been away:
old mould.jpg
It is now starting to feel like it could really be a house, with the bamboo flooring and gyprock installed, and it all lightens up the interior. We have had pelmets built in, so much easier to do at this stage, and eventually there will be heavy curtains. I guess we should have thought about double glazing, but we are counting on it not needing extra heat for 10 months of the year, certainly you never need heat except in the evening in that area. The furniture is huddled in the centre of the living room, and the old fridge was deemed irreparable by a repairman last summer, so it has to go in the skip:
furniture in middle.jpg
Even the second hand kitchen is looking a bit more comfortable with the bamboo beneath it, but that copper hood on the stove has to go. George wants the kitchen painted, I don’t mind it as it is. But I am keen to get some bright colours on the walls, rather than just neutral tones. Just about everything seems to go with bamboo:
kit.jpg
Now that it has a new roof and insulation at great expense, the towering trees so close seem threatening. Our bush fire plan calls for them to be removed, but trees are precious, (as in they cost a fortune to cut down) and we will double check with council before we have them lopped at all. More than most people, I am aware of the danger that storms present in our warming world, so it would be ironic if I left this one to chance:
trees and trailer.jpg
The extra steps to the deck are in, to encourage visitors to come up onto the deck at the back, rather than through the back bedroom door, which is theoretically the entrance from the only road in. As you come up these stairs to the deck, there is a glimpse of the sea, on a good clear day:
onto the deck.jpg
In the morning our friend from town came over, with fresh chocco cake. She is an excellent baker, always something yummy, and if chocos will grow here without much fuss, I’ll have a go at that. My fondness for chocos, at least as a decorative vine, dates from my early days in Sydney, when frangipani was new to me and chocos were exotic. I remember them growing on fences in Glebe up the back of Harold Park. George and the little shaggy dog Anna rescued a few years ago make a nice pair on the deck. Our first visitor since the conversion had to make do with an upturned crate for a coffee table:
george and deny.jpg
George will also be there when the bush fire people do the under burning. We hope it will slow down the bitou bush, which is again appearing on the steep slopes that we clear periodically. A good sun hat I gave him is languishing somewhere on those slopes, where you nearly fall over backwards pulling the beasts out. Many hours have been spent on those slopes and others, and the problems with pest plants have become a big motivator for sub-dividing the land more. It is just too much to keep after all those weeds on 17 acres of steep, snake, tick and leech infested bush.
But at least the spiders, centipedes and frogs will have to work harder now to get at us! It is all pretty nice, especially when we think about how primitive it was for so long. Now we even have a ‘retreat’ off our bedroom, a truly luxurious feature. It may not classify as Grand Designs material (don’t they show the most amazing houses that evolve out of big messes?) but it will be solid and comfortable. With some good (low emission of course) paint, it will be as fine as I would ever aspire to. Lots of places to spread a rug and do yoga, which is sure to be a challenge while travelling:
view from main.jpg
My friend living in Costa Rica and I chatted this morning, and I’ve got an extra memory card for my camera. Digital cameras are such wonderful gadgets, truly liberating as the best technology should be. She’s looking forward to my arrival, I have much to sort out before I leave. To think of this cosy yet large place in the bush waiting for me is very nice, it is also good to miss things you love.
The huge protea bush outside the house has finished flowering, and I won’t be able to cut off all the old flowers until at least December. That means it will start to get scraggly, but so it goes. I’ve brought back one last bouquet, posed nicely in the corner of my kitchen, reminding me how beautiful it is there:
Copy of proteas-in-blue.jpg
But (there has to be a but, or we’d be in Shangri-La) heavy winds are breathing down my neck, even at gorgeous Moruya Heads. One of the joys of heading to the coast from dry Canberra is the greener pastures of the south coast. But lately it has been the same pale wheat colour that has become so boring a daily reminder of climate change. Rain bucketed down, they told me, but other than that downpour, not much. But our tanks are full, all 20,000 litres.
So listen up, you climate change sceptics, to words Bob Watson, who is chief scientific adviser to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in the UK, told the Guardian newspaper:
“There is no doubt that we should aim to limit changes in the global mean surface temperature to 2C above pre-industrial.” “But given this is an ambitious target, and we don’t know in detail how to limit greenhouse gas emissions to realize a 2 degree target, we should be prepared to adapt to 4C.”
From the same article in the Guardian:
Watson’s plea to prepare for the worst was backed up by the government’s former chief scientific adviser, Sir David King. He said that even with a comprehensive global deal to keep carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere at below 450 parts per million there is a 50% probability that temperatures would exceed 2C and a 20% probability they would exceed 3.5C. “So even if we get the best possible global agreement to reduce greenhouse gasses on any rational basis you should be preparing for a 20% risk so I think Bob Watson is quite right to put up the figure of 4 degrees,” he said.
One more blog before I leave…then it will be hasta la vista, amigos!



Posted by Ronda Jambe at 1:20 pm | Comments Off on Under the Moruya Moon (7) |
Filed under: General

August 03, 2008 | Ronda Jambe

Hola! From the Parliamentary Triangle to Costa Rica



Only a few more weeks to go, then an adventure. What is more tempting: finding another contract in Canberra, and having money pour in for rather little effort, or vanishing overseas to study Spanish in Costa Rica?
Someday maybe I will tell my story about the wastage in the public service, but not now. They are all too polite and kind, so why make waves? And they let me do a climate change presentation, which was well attended with lots of sensible comments and questions. I’ve got lots of time for people who bring their own lunches, purchase renewable energy and get rainwater tanks without being forced to.
My message was one of governance, as always. What are we thinking, when we watch programs about The Cars That Ate China? My mind turns to community gardens, compost piles outside public buildings, and a chef in white apron and hat harvesting herbs on a walkway for the cafe meals nearby. During school holidays parents are wandering among the plants, quietly adding their child’s lunch scraps to the compost pile. None of these things exist now in the Parliamentary Triangle, even though I can see them when I close my eyes. Can words make things happen?
In today’s world, perhaps being driven at least half crazy with grief or knowledge is an adaptable way to go.
And go I will, come hell, high water, or more maintence problems on Qantas. Of the many things that need to be sorted out before I go, high on the list is a good carbon offset for my travel. A friend says find one that funds renewable energy, rather than trees, as the tree ones can be dodgy. Any suggestions?
The malaria tablets and typhoid injection: tick. The garden tidy, the dentist, the travel insurance, arrangements for uoloading photos, last year’s tax: all still waiting.
But it’s just in time to get away, as my mother is recovering from an operation and my junkie son may not survive until I return. I hope to not be here when the worst happens. Too terrible to discuss, like the elephants now in danger of extinction:http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7011813654.
The estimate is elephants gone from the wild in Africa by 2020. Well, after chocking back tears (and I HATE being such a crybaby) I thought: well, maybe I’ll be gone by then, too. The thought of living in a world that let the elephants get poached out of existence is actually much worse than one more junkie dying early. And not beautiful, neither. If only I could inject him with some of my energy or courage, but that’s not the way it works.
But Costa Rica awaits, along with an old friend who has been living there for a year. She and I will learn Spanish together, and I hope to get good enough to discuss the illegal shark fin harvesting documented in the film SharkWater. Or maybe learn to salsa….
Also high on the list is getting a few things together for a joint showing in December, which if I am lucky, might have a few of my pics. The kiddie projects can wait, although I started playing with the ideas for one yesterday, I think Pusses at an Exhibition has a nice ring to it. This needs more staging, but after looking at a few kiddie art sites I think there’s some fun to be had:
pusses-for-blog.jpg
It has rained this week in Canberra, another friend stayed overnight, and told about the 20 or 30% energy savings her company achieved in their commercial buildings, while also getting a return on their investment. This was partly just by installing monitoring equipment that lets them know where it is going and when. It seems that top 30% is easily achieved, the next 30% will be harder, and the final 35% (because that is where we are heading as the oil runs out) will be where we start reengineering our lives.
Al Gore’s latest challenge is for 100% renewable energy within 10 years. Good on ya’, Big Al! And it is doable, if we create the kind of vertical curve of change that could equal our nearly vertical curves of energy use, population growth, and so many other variables that we seem to accept. Mobile phone adoption? Probably pretty close to an exponential chart. Likewise digital cameras, etc.
But only if we insist. At my talks, I insist on insisting. As a minor functionary on a contract, I can sit and be patient. But as a citizen, I want to be a screamer. I’ll know I’m gaining fluency when I can talk climate change to the Ticos.



Posted by Ronda Jambe at 12:30 pm | Comments (6) |
Filed under: General
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