David Fraser is a recognised expert in Queensland elections and electoral boundaries, having been involved in most Liberal Party redistribution submissions since the 1970s. This is his take on the Queensland redistribution. Thanks to David for preparing it for the blog.
With the release of the proposed Queensland electoral boundaries it might be useful to summarise what has occurred.
There will continue to be 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly. Four seats have been abolished – Cunningham (Stuart Copeland, NP), Darling Downs (Ray Hopper, NP), Fitzroy (Jim Pearce, ALP) and Tablelands (Rosa Lee Long, One Nation). Four new seats have been created – Buderim (Sunshine Coast), Coomera (Gold Coast), Dalby (Darling Downs) and Morayfield (to the immediate north of Brisbane).
Four seats have been renamed following extensive boundary changes. These are Charters Towers (Shane Knuth, NP) to be renamed Macrossan after the inclusion of parts of Tablelands, Kurwongbah (Linda Lavarch, ALP) to be renamed Samsonvale as Lake Kurwongbah will no longer be included in the electorate, Mount Gravatt (Judy Spence, ALP) to be renamed Sunnybank as it has been moved westwards, and Robina (Ray Stephens, Lib) to be renamed Mermaid Beach as much of the suburb of Robina will be removed from the electorate.
No changes are proposed to two electorates – Gladstone (Liz Cunningham, Ind) and Moggill (Bruce Flegg, Lib).
With Labor holding 59 seats to the Coalition’s 25 and five by independents or One Nation the impact on the ALP is greatest.
The abolition of Fitzroy was followed by an announcement that the current member, Jim Pearce (elected in 1989), would retire. His is the only announced retirement from the ranks of ALP members despite Premier Anna Bligh’s calls last week for renewal in parliamentary ranks. Police Minister Judy Spence (also first elected in 1989) will seek election for the new seat of Sunnybank after her Mount Gravatt seat disappeared.
The inclusion of a number of mining towns from the abolished Fitzroy in the National Party electorate of Mirani (Ted Malone on 56.5 percent) may give some comfort to the ALP.
The removal of Bowen from the marginal Labor seat of Whitsunday (held by Jan Jarrett with 54.4 percent of the vote after preferences) weaken Labor’s hold. However, its inclusion in the marginal National Party seat of Burdekin (Rosemary Menkens on 52.4 percent) will enhance Labor’s chances there.
It has been suggested Caroline Male (ALP) will leave her seat of Glass House and seek election for the new seat of Morayfield, a suburban seat to the south of Caboolture, which represents a better propspect for Labor.
On the rapidly expanding Gold Coast Gaven (Phil Grey on 53.1 percent) and Broadwater (Peta-Kaye Croft on 55.2 percent) have been improved for Labor though the marginal Mudgeeraba (Di Reilly on 52.9 percent) has seen the Liberal Party’s prospects improved. The character of the ALP seat of Albert has changed significantly while the adjacent new seat of Coomera extends from the strong Labor area of Eagleby (transferred from Albert) in the north to the Liberal voting Hope Island (transferred from Broadwater) in the south
In suburban Brisbane two marginal Labor seats have been improved for the Liberal Party – Aspley (Bonny Barry on 54.6 percent) and Chatsworth (Chris Bombolas on 50.8 percent) – by the removal of Labor voting areas.
The Liberal Party will probably gain the new seat of Buderim on the Sunshine Coast with the announcement that the current member for Kawana, Steve Dickson (Lib), will seek to transfer to the new seat. The Liberal Party would expect to retain Kawana.
A major problem confronts the National Party with the proposed abolition of two safe seats – Cunningham and Darling Downs to the south and west of Toowoomba – and the creation of only one new seat in the same area – Dalby. Assuming neither National member decides to retire, three alternatives face the Nationals – the sitting members, Stuart Copeland and Ray Hopper, face off in Dalby with the loser exiting politics; Copeland runs in Dalby with Hopper contesting Nanango against independent Dorothy Pratt; or the veteran National, Mike Horan, retires from Toowoomba South with Copeland taking that seat and Hopper running in Dalby. Whatever the outcome, this has the potential to cause major problems in the Nationals’ heartland.
The boundaries are subject to public objection and Labor at least has already heralded its concerns over changes to Whitsunday. With objections closing on 23 June the Commission then has until 22 August to make its final determination.
This redistribution follows the pattern established in 1991 and 1999 with seats moving from rural and regional areas to the south east. There is little to suggest that the pattern will not be repeated when the boundaries are next redrawn.