Morgan has Labor at 54.5% to the Coalitions 45.5% and Newspoll has it 50/50 two-party preferred. That confirms our polling of last week where the positions of the parties had returned to where they were in October 2010.
The results, averaging these two polls, would be somewhere around a 52.5% Labor victory. It could be a bit lower than that, as Morgan uses a mix of face-to-face, SMS and Internet polling. I suspect the second two capture enthusiasm to some extent, as well as voting intention.
But, however you read it, the odds favour a Labor victory.
What that means is that expectations, which now favour a coalition victory (as demonstrated in the betting markets which give Labor only around a 25% chance of winning), will now start to favour Labor. And when that happens voters will start to think about what another term of Labor would mean.
A Rudd government at the next election would lead to nine years of Labor government, assuming that the parliament after this runs its full term. That would make it one of the longest-running governments in Australia’s history.