The problem for John Howard is that people have just made up their minds that they want a change of government, so there’s not much that will deter them. That doesn’t mean that Labor doesn’t have some problems holding on to them.
GetUp commissioned research which suggests that the Labor vote is lagging in the Senate. If this research is correct – and when dealing with GetUp one has to be sceptical in the same way as if you were dealing with one of the political parties – then voters are taking out insurance on a big Labor swing and hedging their lower house bets with their upper house ones.
The same effect can take place in the lower house in safe seats, as research that I have conducted with The Australian demonstrates. Take Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith. A number of respondents said they would normally have voted Labor this time, but wouldn’t for various reasons, including their concern that Rudd Labor will be virtually indstinguishable from Howard Liberal.
Peter Garrett’s remarks will help to soothe this group. But they are unlikely to impact on the last-time Liberal voters that have moved to Labor. They are so keen for a change of government that Garrett’s remarks will fail to register with them. Who’s Peter Garrett? This election is all about Kevin.