Apparently Channel Nine’s worm gave the Great Debate between Anna Bligh and Campbell Newman to Bligh. I was there, and I’m not sure what the worm had for lunch, but it must have affected its judgement. Bligh was lifeless, listless and defeated, particularly when her opponent was answering the questions.
I think the reason that the worm went the way it did is that it is made up of uncommitted voters.
In a normal election where the result is up for grabs that might give you a reasonable election.
But in a paradigm shift election where one side is going to win in a landslide and where there are hardly any uncommitted voters it is going to be slanted towards the losing side. The only uncommitted voters are those still holding out over changing their vote.
They will more likely normally vote for the losing side, and probably be looking for reasons not to change their vote, given that just about everyone who was going to has.
The worm can be a useful tool, but it depends on what it is measuring as to whether it gives a useful guide to what is actually happening in a particular election.