July 04, 2011 | Graham

Can’t help myself



Bob Brown tells us that because of global warming storms are getting more severe. Kevin Rudd told us that because of global warming we were in drought.

Now the CSIRO tells us that we were in drought because storms were weaker.

Dr Jorgen Frederiksen from the the CSIRO says there has been a 50-year decrease in the average intensity of storms hitting Australia, a trend which is forecast to continue for another 50 years.

Well, they can’t all be right.

Does global warming increase or decrease storm intensity?

And why is it that the decrease in storm intensity is forecast to stop in 50 years? Are they assuming carbon mitigation strategies will start to work then, or is it something that arises from business as usual? Or is there some other natural cycle?

50 years is a pretty good forecasting horizon, because by that time the forecaster won’t be around to be held accountable.

You can read the whole paper here. I suspect my journalistic colleagues haven’t, or the answers to some of my questions above would be in the news reports. ┬áIf you want to help us all out, please check the paper out and let me know the answers.



Posted by Graham at 12:51 pm | Comments (6) |
Filed under: Uncategorized

6 Comments

  1. Last night Graham I saw the end of a doco on the new theory of CO2.Global cooling is upon us and a new ice age heralds.Apparently the ocean conveyer belts are shutting down due to the mysterious influence of CO2 and bringing on a new ice age.This is what they were telling us in the 1970’s.So we have gone from global warming that would see endless doughts and extreme high temperatures,ocean acidification and now to a new ice age caused by CO2.Sydney built a white elephant for $ billions called a desalination planet that burns coal like a steel furnace based on lie of endless droughts.

    Scientists have been saying for decades that we are over due for an ice age,yet somehow this new one is caused by man made CO2.

    Their whole scenario is a laughable farce.Global warming is now responsible for the onset of a new ice age which is overdue anyway.

    Perhaps they should go back to the future in the 1950’s when the people of the USA went into absolute terror because of a radio prank that had everyone convinced that the Martians were invading the planet.

    You just have to shake your head in disbelief and hope that somewhere deep in the human psyche,common sense will prevail.

    Comment by Ross — July 9, 2011 @ 9:58 am

  2. I missed the doco, but CO2 is unlikely to have an impact as it follows in the footsteps of rising and falling temperatures, with a lag.

    In an ironic twist, human induced carbon dioxide may well save our bacon as we head into a cooler phase.

    Carbon dioxide is a great fertilizer.

    Comment by el gordo — July 9, 2011 @ 11:47 am

  3. el gordo it was on the Discovery Channel.Here is a link to the new theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/Shutdown-of thermohaline-circulation They say the poles are melting due to Global warming and all this fresh water is either slowing down or will stop the ocean conveyer currents thus causing a cooling at the north and south.

    There is no evidence of serious Polar melting.If there is a slowing of the currents this means the colder water will not moderate the surface temps of the ocean.ie the surface temps will be higher.So we should be have global warming since the oceans bar the Sun are the prime influencers of climate and weather.

    They are trying to cover all bases.First we had global warming,then climate change and now CO2 is causing cooling.As you implied and ice age will be far more devestating than warming.They might have to burn more carbon if indeed it will have a significant effect and I doubt it.

    Climate seems to ignored the IPCC computer models and it is a travesty that they cannot explain it.

    Comment by Ross — July 9, 2011 @ 11:19 pm

  4. Don’t know what planet you (guys) are on, but the US EPA is just one of many agencies that is stating polar melting is speeding up, with dire consequences. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/polarregions.html

    And just because we non-scientists don’t see the whole pattern, doesn’t mean that things aren’t changing, and rapidly. We have entered the age of the Anthropocene, a phrase coined by Paul Crutzen, and that means our species is drastically changing a number of vital ecosystems.

    Comment by Ronda Jambe — July 11, 2011 @ 6:23 am

  5. Rhona we have had 3 very cool winters and record snow and cold in the Northern hemisphere.We know they have been fudging the climate stats and we know the IPCC is not a trustworthy body.According to their theories we should be having record high temps with all this extra CO2 added in the last 10 yrs.The reality and facts do not back their assertions.Yes we are on planet Earth and when it was heating up 10 yrs ago so was Mars due to the influence of the Sun.

    Computer climate models cannot replicate reality.There are still too many unknown variables.Rubbish in = rubbish out.

    Comment by Ross — July 11, 2011 @ 7:02 am

  6. yes, Ross, the data seems contradictory, as might be expected in a system at the edge of chaos.

    winter up north has certainly been colder than recent previous years.

    However, there is also evidence that things are heating up in summers, and especially the overnight temps are warmer. These reports are just a sampling, and the key concept, that CO2 warms the atmosphere, is pretty well established:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/03/uah-global-temperature-still-in-a-holding-pattern/

    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6026/220.abstract

    2010 tied for warmest year:
    http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2011/2011-01-12-02.html

    Comment by Ronda Jambe — July 11, 2011 @ 1:04 pm

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