Bob Brown tells us that because of global warming storms are getting more severe. Kevin Rudd told us that because of global warming we were in drought.
Dr Jorgen Frederiksen from the the CSIRO says there has been a 50-year decrease in the average intensity of storms hitting Australia, a trend which is forecast to continue for another 50 years.
Well, they can’t all be right.
Does global warming increase or decrease storm intensity?
And why is it that the decrease in storm intensity is forecast to stop in 50 years? Are they assuming carbon mitigation strategies will start to work then, or is it something that arises from business as usual? Or is there some other natural cycle?
50 years is a pretty good forecasting horizon, because by that time the forecaster won’t be around to be held accountable.
You can read the whole paper here. I suspect my journalistic colleagues haven’t, or the answers to some of my questions above would be in the news reports. If you want to help us all out, please check the paper out and let me know the answers.