May 09, 2011 | Graham

Make or break budget? Drop me a line.

Tonight’s federal budget is make or break for the Gillard/Swan government. They are close to written-off, but not quite.

Ten years ago John Howard seemed headed for certain defeat, but dramatically changed direction during the Ryan by-election, taking a tax off beer and indexation off fuel excise.

At the time the pundits criticised him for reversing his positions, but the public didn’t care as long as he was doing what they wanted. His polling figures then ┬ástarted to improve, even before the Tampa headed over the horizon, and by the end of the year he was reelected.

Embracing the Pacific Solution in the form of the Malaysian solution may be a U-turn that the punters are prepared to accept. It’s tougher than anything Howard devised. Malaysia is further from Australia than any of Howard’s off shore detention centres, and while asylum seekers will be allowed to live in the community they won’t be eligible for social security, or allowed to work.

So not only don’t they get to Australia, but they get to starve while they wait for their case to be heard.

Will we see any U-turns like this in the budget?

I doubt it. All the signs are that taxes, prices and government spending will be going up but that the government hopes to convince the public that the reverse is happening.

It’s quite possible for voters to hold two conflicting views simultaneously without cognitive dissonance setting in.

So they may be buying Wayne Swan’s line that this is a “tough” budget at the same time as they are buying increased handouts to electorally vulnerable blocs and a $50 B deficit.

I’ll be doing some polling after the budget to see what voters’ reactions are. On Line Opinion is also looking for articles in response. Short ones are welcome as well as long ones, and if they won’t all fit in On Line Opinion we’ll publish them here. Just drop me a line


Posted by Graham at 9:14 pm | Comments (6) |


  1. Once again it appears that the people who can least afford it will suffer in tonights budget. Pensioners, the unemployed, the homeless etc. Although the theory of working for the dole may be a good point I can see the system being abused by corporations which employ people, as is already occurring with some companies. One company in Pakenham Victoria employs long term unemployed and from what I understand the government pays that company a subsidy towards the wages of those workers for up to 3 months. When the government paid subsidy for each of those workers expires the company sacks them and gets more workers that again are subsidised by the government. No doubt there would be a lot more companies that know of and rort the system, which when all said and done is at the cost of the tax payer. I was made redundant from employment as a truck driver on the 10th October 2010 when the company I work for down sized. I have applied for many positions since with no success. To increase my opportunities to find employment I attended a seminar for older unemployed and have just completed certificate 2 in security. Most of the other students in the class were also unemployed and have positive attitudes to find employment and they want to work. Unfortunately our Federal government uses the media to label most recipients of unemployment benefits as professional dole bludgers to which a lot of the SHEEPLE who have jobs and pay their taxes believe the spin. Compared to the employment vacancies to the ratio of unemployed there are not enough jobs. There is also the issue of resourcing workers from offshore and many companies who have relocated offshore.

    Comment by Gypsy Tom — May 10, 2011 @ 1:06 am

  2. With regards to the illegal boat people who arrive on our shores. Our governments accomadate and feed them on long term basis where most are eventually given refugee status and resettled into the community. They get government funded housing, benefits etc and many with no prospects of employment, again all this is at the cost of the tax payers. This increases more unemployed and more welfare benifits being paid out and the only ones who benefit are the criminal people smugglers and the illegal boat people. On arrival they should be immediately deported out of the country back to where they came from this would be a deterent to others from attempting illegal entry to our country and subsequently result in putting the people smugglers out of business. People smuggling is a Crime under the Criminal Codes Acts both Federal and State. It is my understanding that anyone who aids and abets a crime is also guilty of the offence so if our government permits them to stay and does not deport them at the earliest conveniance, is it not guilty of aiding and abeting a crime? Also they are committing a crime against the people of Australia by way of the use of our taxes to house and accomadate the illegal boat people.

    Comment by Gypsy Tom — May 10, 2011 @ 1:34 am

  3. I do not have a problem with genuine refugees resettling in Australia, but I do believe they abide by the correct procedures as many already have. Although their cultures and or religian may differ from ours, They are also living flesh and blood people with just as much right to live as living flesh and blood people.
    But I do have a problem when we have to alter our Christian culture or our standards so as not to offend them. A prime example is kindergarten and schools in areas frequented by other cultures as well as our own not being permitted to celebrate traditional Christmas or Easter celebrations les they be offended.
    Any people from other culture’s who migrate and settle in Australia should respect and asmilate with us as we should with them. This would avoid any racial conflict or bigotry from either groups.
    If they refuse to asimilate with the Australian culture when out in public they should consider returning to the countries from whence they came.

    Comment by Gypsy Tom — May 10, 2011 @ 2:07 am

  4. The solution to our woes is to create a new Govt Bank that can finance infrastructure debt free, and put a tax on fractional reserve banking which creates money from nothing to equal our increases in GDP + inflation.

    We can create all the money we need and do not need Global Central Banks putting us all into debt which we can never escape.Under the present system,the more growth we have,the more debt we incur.

    Comment by Ross — May 10, 2011 @ 7:34 am

  5. Well put Ross. I totally agree with you. World banks and corporations have enslaved the people and unfortunately our governments in Australia are assisting this unlawful practice. Yes we do need a new Government bank, the peoples bank, and take away the greedy power of the private banking cartels.

    Comment by Gypsy Tom — May 10, 2011 @ 8:18 am

  6. Gypsy Tom,you will love this DVD.Go to L Frank Baum in ‘The Wizard of Oz’ had a deep economic meaning for us all.Baum in his children’s story used a lot of symbolism which we have missed to this day.

    Bill Still’s documentary has won the Biff International award for the best documentary in 2010.It is all about the banksters and the struggle of the people in the 1890’s Depression against the elites who nominated their gold to be the currency,which sent them on the yellow brick road of monetary enslavement.

    Very highly recommended.

    Comment by Ross — May 10, 2011 @ 11:11 am

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