March 10, 2009 | Graham

Newspoll and Galaxy agree – LNP ahead

(Cross-posted from What the people want) The Australian reports today on Newspoll research which puts the Liberal National Party in a small lead over the ALP. It’s not up on Newspoll’s site yet, but it confirms Galaxy and our own findings.
Most notable movement in the figures appears to be the deterioration in Premier Anna Bligh’s satisfaction rating plunging from 52% to 47%. Springborg satisfaction is 44%, almost the same figure as Bligh, although his disapproval rating has been rising, and a larger number of people are undecided about him than Bligh.
We uncovered strong dissatisfaction with Bligh in June last year. What we detected 9 months ago appears to have leaked into the general population. This suggests that the LNP lead is likely to increase.
While our respondents haven’t moved much, the general populace has. My suspicion is that this is because our sample regularly thinks more deeply about politics than the average, but that when the average turns its mind to the same issues as an election approaches, it thinks similarly.
We are a week and a half out from the election and it is about now that most voters seriously start thinking about how they will vote. That means, assuming my theory is true, that the quantitative polls should start to capture more defections at the same time that the undecided vote collapses and tends to favour the LNP which should push the LNP vote relatively higher.
All of this assumes that nothing happens from outside the system between now and election day to radically alter perceptions. Cyclone Hamish making a landfall is just one of those potential factors; or one or other of the leaders making a major gaffe.
(Re-reading my earlier research, the only thing which doesn’t appear accurate is my prediction that there would be no early election – perhaps an example of a rogue population rather than rogue sampling.)

Posted by Graham at 6:36 am | Comments (7) |
Filed under: Australian Politics


  1. Queensland labour has had 10 years + in office which is long enough.
    Anna Bligh like Peter beatty have done very little for rural areas of the state you only have to look at road conditions, the health crisis etc, so where did all the money earned by this government in the resources boom go to.
    It appears there is serious incompetence afoot here.

    Comment by David Stalker — March 10, 2009 @ 9:41 am

  2. A lead in the polls could certainly be blown away this week. Why do I feel that some Queenslanders are not taking the cyclone threat seriously enough? Nobody ever mentions Cyclone Monica. If anything approaching that strength hit a place like Hervey Bay there would be disaster worse than Tracy.
    On the election:
    Will the South East, especially Brisbane bring themselves to elect Springborg Premier. Will they remember that he’s really National Party despite the re-branding?
    Haven’t seen a breakdown of the latest poll giving the LNP a 2% break but suspect the lead could be weighted towards the bush and regions. The old Beasley 1998 majority in the wrong seats syndrome. More at my blog.

    Comment by Kevin Rennie — March 10, 2009 @ 10:23 am

  3. Basically Bligh is no Beattie who could ham it up and pretend to be Sir Joh. At least he pretended he could fix the health system. Bligh isn’t even trying there. Nobody pays attention to the government mid term, even when they are advertising more than McDonalds. Now that the light is on Bligh she don’t look so good. Neither does young Fraser who comes across as the nerdy monotonal nerd, know it all, in the front of the class. He won’t make a good opposition leader. The personality of a fish. Anyway he admitted he would become the house husband after the election didn’t he?
    (I am forgetting that that doesn’t matter as Labor don’t base positions on talent but factions and mates…)
    Bye bye Bligh!

    Comment by joe — March 10, 2009 @ 1:18 pm

  4. Kevin I think SEQ people will vote for Springborg. They finally have a viable option with a united LNP. Asking if they remember what party he was from is like asking will people remember that Bligh was Education minister, in charge of finances and children…
    People in the south have also had a gutfull of Labor so I think they will vote LNP.

    Comment by joe — March 10, 2009 @ 1:22 pm

  5. Personally I think Queensland politics is at best hog tied by the inherent conservatism and selfishness of the elector(s).
    To me fools vote for personality, I prefer policy (is it good for the state not necessarily me), talent and motivation.
    I fail to see that LNP has better policies and given some of the cast of council villains are now trying for LA. Given what they did in council it is doubtful they will serve a wider canvass of people any better or be less likely to run amok than they did on council. i.e. one candidate was part of the lowest residents’ approval rated council teams in SE Qld. Only two of seven survived the last council purge. His inane foot in mouth disease and eye for the ladies is legendary. He survived by the less than the incumbency factor on absentees. His nomination has split his local branch.
    If the LNP don’t get up it will their lousy choice of hierarchically manipulated candidates. If they do get up then it will be down to the electorate’s inherent desire for “a strong” man and their curmugeonary fear of women in powerful places certainly not better talent or better policies.
    Notwithstanding I fear who ever wins it will be more of the same clap trap (perhaps with an sharper ideological edge) and the majority of the people will get much of the same.

    Comment by examinator ant — March 10, 2009 @ 5:28 pm

  6. Perhaps Anna is missing your advice, Graham.

    Comment by Geoff Brown — March 20, 2009 @ 10:19 am

  7. Not sure whether that is a compliment or not Geoff. I certainly say what I think in these blogs, and I reckon I’m generally pretty close to the money.

    Comment by Graham Young — March 20, 2009 @ 10:50 am

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