March 03, 2009 | Graham

Surge to LNP on calling of election.

(Cross posted from What the people want.) In the first week of the election there has been a strong swing in sentiment against the government, somewhere in the vicinity of 7.5%. If this were reflected in the election result Queensland would most likely have a new government and a hung parliament.
Voters see this election as being about the government, not the opposition, and they appear to be punishing it for its governing of the state.
Our surveys are of people who are most likely to lead debate. They are people who write on blogs, ring talkback radio, write letters to the editor and talk politics to friends, relatives and neighbours.
While they may not be a randomised sample of the total population they provide a good lead as to where public opinion is heading.
In June last year they told us that the government was in trouble. On a two-party preferred basis they favoured the then Coalition by 52% to 48%. Since then there has been a 7% improvement in the coalition vote on virtually the same group of people.
(Note: most pollsters allocate preferences as they were allocated at the last election, we ask voters how they would allocate. These figures catch all those proposing to just vote one and not allocate a preference.)
This improvement in the two-party preferred vote is mirrored in the first preference vote, with the Liberal National Party (I have added the Liberal and National Party votes together before the merged entity came into being) first preference vote up 7% since June last year.
While Labor was down in January the lost voters were initially warehoused mostly with Greens and Independents. It was only after the election that they moved across to the LNP.
What has caused this movement?
It doesn’t appear to be anything to do with Lawrence Springborg. His approval rating with this group has actually been declining at the same time his own party’s vote is increasing.
Although not as quickly as Anna Bligh’s approval rating.
Despite what they will personally do with their votes, our respondents are telling us that they still expect Labor to win.
Although they’d like the Coalition to win, but not by as much as their voting intentions suggest. A significant minority would like to see a hung parliament.
If Springborg hasn’t caused this shift in sentiment, what has?
It’s possible that calling an election is a large part of the problem as the table below showing the numbers more ore less likely to vote for the government as a result of calling the election early suggests.
But note how the net figure hasn’t changed much, even though those on both sides of the proposition have.
Which suggests that the major reason is general dissatisfaction with the way the state is heading.
All of which means that the elction is currently framed for our voters as a vote of confidence or no-confidence in the government, rather than a vote for the government or the opposition. If it stays that way, and on the assumption that our respondents are ahead of the curve, there is a very good chance that the opposition will win.
I’ll be posting results of the qual in the next couple of days.

Posted by Graham at 10:08 pm | Comments (3) |
Filed under: Australian Politics


  1. I’m curious as to why you’re TPP figure seems to favour the LNP so much compared to other polls like Newspoll, Galaxy, etc, which give a slight lead to Labor.
    The 7% swing is possibly in the ball-park, but your absolute numbers looks wrong. Would 7% swing be enough for the LNP to form government?

    Comment by MDMConnell — March 4, 2009 @ 10:37 am

  2. I keep explaining that this is qualitative polling. The absolute figures often represent a bias because of the differential interest of particular groups in the election. This election Labor voters are not enthusiastic, so they don’t turn up. The swing figure is derived from relativities using the same sample.
    7% would be enough for them to form a minority government if the swings fell in the right places.

    Comment by Graham Young — March 4, 2009 @ 11:30 am

  3. I understand the LNP gains ground in the Galaxy poll due to come out at 5pm, Queensland time.

    Comment by Hugh Abbot — March 5, 2009 @ 4:21 pm

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