October 14, 2007 | Graham

Brisbane Central harbinger of gloom for Liberals

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has scored well in her debut as campaigner-in-chief in the Brisbane Central by-election. The ALP has scored 50.06% of the vote to date, which compares with 50.48% last time. This probably means that there was virtually no swing against the government.
Why? It might be attributable to Bligh’s honeymoon. If it is, then that indicates that the poor government of Queensland has ceased to be an issue for the time-being, which won’t help John Howard retain seats here.
It’s also not encouraging for the Queensland Greens. They should be disappointed with their result. At 33.96% it is almost double their figure at the general election, but as their candidate, small businesswoman Anna Bocabella, would have attracted many Liberal voters, in the absence of a Liberal candidate, it probably indicates no change in their vote, or a small decrease.

Posted by Graham at 12:34 pm | Comments (5) |
Filed under: Australian Politics


  1. Hi Graham. As you’ve already pointed out, the problems for the Libs are highlighted by them not running a candidate in the first place. But reading the result as a decrease in the Greens vote? Wouldn’t mind seeing that unpacked a little further…

    Comment by Jason — October 14, 2007 @ 1:49 pm

  2. Well, Labor stayed where it was, the Liberals got 28% last time, and weren’t running this time. There may have been a notional drop in the Liberals vote, but it’s really hard to see them getting much less in any election. So, Greens either went nowhere, or there may have been a small decline, really hard to say. I thought in the absence of a Liberal that they would have had a chance of winning the seat, but there had to be a protest against the government, which there wasn’t.

    Comment by Graham Young — October 14, 2007 @ 2:09 pm

  3. From experience, don’t try to extrapolate general election results from a by-election. They are their own peculiar type of beast.

    Comment by El Nino — October 14, 2007 @ 7:09 pm

  4. Brisbane Central by-election: federal implications?

    Undoubtedly, Queensland will be a key battle ground in this federal election. Shortly, I’ll be writing on the shape of the Sunshine State contest and key seats (some of them unexpected) to watch. But since the commonwealth election was called on the …

    Comment by Larvatus Prodeo — October 15, 2007 @ 5:11 pm

  5. Good site! I’ll stay reading! Keep improving!

    Comment by George — November 11, 2007 @ 12:05 am

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