March 24, 2004 | Graham

Polling leaks versus the Courier Mail

The source of my ALP polling information now tells me that they have Campbell Newman on 34% this week, so he’s up a little again, but apparently not enough to worry them.
Still, polls can be deceitful things. None of them predicted that Sallyanne would lose, until the one with the ultimate sample on the day. Tomorrow the Courier Mail is apparently publishing a poll. That will give us a much better idea of how good my source is.
Went to a breakfast this morning that was addressed by Campbell Newman. The most telling point during the morning was made by Bruce Flegg, the new state Liberal Deputy Parliamentary Leader. Apparently the cabbie who drove him in to town said he was going to give Campbell a go because he was “trying” for his vote. There has certainly been a smugness and complacency on the Quinn side of this campaign, perhaps driven by relief that former Lord Mayor Jim Soorley is not the candidate. While most in Brisbane probably aren’t antagonistic to Soorley now, my source tells me that ALP polling had the ALP losing up until his resignation approximately 12 months ago.
The advertising campaign has been interesting this time around. Most of the weight from both sides has been on positive ads, which unfortunately seem to reduce to claims that “my tunnel is bigger (or better) than yours”, but there have been a number of negative ads. When an ad no longer runs you can reach one of two conclusions – it has run its course, or it has been irritating the voters. As a result you can guess at what the other side’s polling might be saying.
One ad that is no longer running is one that features Campbell and his team after alleging that he has “Tunnel vision”. Maybe the ad has been withdrawn because it annoyed the punters, or maybe because it has run its course. There is another possibility. When you look at the team it reminds you that the Lilberals in Brisbane have struck a more significant blow for women’s involvement in politics than the ALP has managed to do anywhere, Emily’s list notwithstanding. 5 out of 8 of the sitting councillors are women, and it is quite obvious in the ad. I think the Liberals could have made more of this.

Posted by Graham at 10:23 pm | Comments Off on Polling leaks versus the Courier Mail |
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