November 09, 2003 | Graham

Hanson to shoot up the senate?

That’s one implication of the Sunday Mail’s poll this morning which puports to show that Pauline Hanson would “storm senate”. Maybe. Their figures show her winning 30% of the vote which is enought for two senate seats. I don’t think this is likely – there was a similar surge when she was jailed – but if the polling trend continues I will have to revise my opinion she wouldn’t win a quota in a normal half Senate election and would need a double dissolution to have a chance. I think on balance, as the noise from the court case dies down, so too will her vote. Still, I note she may have found a new funding method for campaigns – Channel Nine and ACP have apparently bought exclusive rights to her story for $120,000 to $150,000. When was the last time they did this for John Howard or Simon Crean?
There are some other interesting aspects of the poll. While Pauline’s popularity is higher than ever, the One Nation state vote is well shy of its 1998 peak when it was the second most popular party in Queensland. On a state basis it is sitting on 12%, below both Liberal and Labor. Plenty of people will tell you that Pauline Hanson is a right wing phenomenon. If that’s so, why is it 7% of the Labor vote appears to have gone to Hanson while the Coalition has stayed stationary?
Another interesting aspect is that One Nation is still more popular than the National Party which is on only 8% of the vote. Makes you wonder why the brains trust at the Liberal Party ceded so many good non-Labor seats to the Nats in the coalition negotiations when this election was the one they could have really re-established themselves in non-Labor politics. The only credible explanation is internal factional politics. Also makes you wonder why the Nats are worried about fighting with the Libs on their urban flank – the rural flank looks even more dangerous. Peter Beattie should have little trouble carving up a fractured opposition of Nats, Libs and One Nation.

Posted by Graham at 8:09 am | Comments Off on Hanson to shoot up the senate? |
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