I remember the 2001 leader’s debate. On my scoring, and that of the “worm”, Howard lost. Later that week I realised that in a way he had won. The people in the studio audience weren’t those he was talking to. He was broadcasting to the sort of person who voted for One Nation, and they [...]

Now I know what I’m talking about. Between surveys I feel like a complete fraud. Journalists ask me what I think is happening, and I tell them, qualified with the observation that I am only speculating because I am only one vote. Now I know much more about what is happening, because I have asked [...]

ONE of the issues really making an impact in the United States elections (although the polls might not indicate it) is the “outsourcing” of job in areas such as call centres to overseas countries, notably India. John Kerry has promised to impose taxation penalties on US companies that outsource jobs overseas. I expect the Bush-Cheney [...]

This post is a quick summary of the economics and politics of Latham’s tax and family package. The Economics According to today’s papers Latham’s tax policy is an $11 B pitch for battlers which will return an average $8 per week. This will be funded by changes to the superannuation system, slugging smokers and people [...]

I was getting tired, not to mention angry, at all those economists who said that governments don’t make any difference to interest rate levels, so it was a relief to hear Frank Gelber from BIS Shrapnel on ABC Radio news today. There is no reference to it on the ABC website, so I can’t link [...]

I think I’m going to run a series of these. I first applied this phrase to Jenny Macklin in a post over the weekend where she was criticising the government for not implementing a budget promise when in fact they couldn’t because Labor has held the legislation up in the Senate. Now I’m sure that [...]

The Liberal Party as the champion of Medicare? It sounds unlikely given decades of opposition to national health since Bill Hayden introduced Medibank, but it is not as unlikely as it looks if you understand the relationship between the medical profession and the Liberal Party. Today Howard effectively trumped Mark Latham’s announcement of a $179 [...]

“Expectations management” is something that all good campaign managers do, because if electors perceive that a certain outcome is likely that will influence their vote. As a result, all smart political operators try to position as the underdog. Expectations management I noted the other day that John Howard had slipped up on his positioning when [...]

I’m in the federal seat of Paterson at the moment, and as it is such a long drive from Brisbane I’ve been deprived my usual sources of news and had to even rely on commercial radio. That gives me an opportunity to at least hear and read more like a normal voter. So here goes [...]