Comments on: A Card Game You Don’t Want to Play

By: Environmental Impact Statement

Environmental Impact Statement — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 17:18:27 +0000

Hello Ronda You may find astrophysicist, Nigel Weiss' scientific theories on solar activity, interesting. http://www.admin.cam.ac.uk/news/press/dpp/2007032023 http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/now/ He, like you and I, no doubt would agree that there are no jobs on a dead planet. Anyone whose eyes are not glued on, can see that the anthropogenic gangrene has set in and the amputations are inevitable - warming or no warming! Cheers

By: Q&A

Q&A — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 11:26:21 +0000

Graham
You say â€œyour (my) comment about the poles is nonsensical.â€
I did not comment on, or even mention, the â€œpolesâ€.
I did mention â€œpolar amplificationâ€, this is entirely different.
That link to Dr Syun Akasofu does not work. However, I do know him and am familiar with his work. While he “retired” last year, I am sure he has still much to contribute to Arctic research.
I have always been of the opinion that we (humanity) must live in a more sustainable way.
Ronda
There are some people that do in fact â€œdenyâ€ global warming is happening at all (Nick, this has nothing to do with the Holocaust).
Unfortunately, these people make a lot of noise that detracts from adapting to a warmer and wetter world, or promulgate delay in implementing strategies to reduce the impact of excessive GHG emissions.

By: ronda jambe

ronda jambe — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 08:01:19 +0000

Fair call, Nick. I’m not sure I have referred to anyone directly as a ‘denier’, although perhaps I have and I have certainly referred to sites that do.
The comments on RiotACT were made without any engagement from me, that came afterwards.
The point is, there are some people (not GY, and clearly not yourself) who are rather rabid about the whole issue and unreceptive to dialogue.
My talks have tended to attract the conveted, and thus I have decided they are no longer worth doing.
What kinds of information would persuade the neutral that the eath has exceed its limits? I personally feel population is the key problem, (not that that has easy solutions) because if poopulation were to ease all the other environmental, and probably social problems would also ease.
A book by John Gray “Straw Dogs’ a friend loaned me offers such a scathing critique of humanism that I think I should just retreat into my garden for the duration. More about that another time.
Civilised discussion is balm to my soul…thank you.

By: Nick Ferrett

Nick Ferrett — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 08:36:09 +0000

Ronda
I really object to the term “climate change denier”. As others have observed (including, I think, GY) it subliminally conjures up a comparison with “holocaust deniers” and the like. It is unfair to people with genuinely held views and probably why, in some fora, you provoke less than genteel conversation.
My view is that I don’t have the expertise to tell whether its a risk or not, but I do know that enough eminent people say that it is a risk that we should take it seriously. One thing we have to do in taking it seriously is obtain a consensus for action. You don’t do that by deliberately demonising those who legitimately question the received wisdom about climate change.

By: Graham Young

Graham Young — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 05:11:46 +0000

Ronda, the sea level rise issue is a difficult one to deal with because it depends on so many factors and varies from area to area. Land sinking can make sea appear to rise, for example, and there are issues with prevailing winds and gravitational fields. As far as I know no-one has satisfactorily dealt with this on a global basis, but the Jason 2 satellite might remedy this situation by measuring sea levels from space.
However, as it has only just been launched it would be too early to infer any trends.
Q&A your comment about the poles is nonsensical. The South Pole hasn’t been warming at all, and if a peninsular attached to it is warming it would be logical to assume a change in a local weather pattern rather than anything global.
If you want a reference to an emininent scientist who says CO2 is not a significant factor in warming and that rather than change being in advance of IPCC forecasts it is behind, then you could have a look at http://people.iarc.uaf.edu/~sakasofu/little_ice_age.php.
My position is that CO2 will increase global temperatures, but that this increase will not be catastrophic and that the likely temperature increase can be worked out on the basis of a very simple mathematical model. There are also other determinants of global temperature that overwhelm CO2. Instead of worrying about emitting too much CO2 we ought to be more worried about how we are going to power our civilisation when we run out of fossil fuels.
BTW Ronda, you introduced February. I’d agree it’s not a good measure of anything, but I was dealing with your argument on its own terms.

By: ronda jambe

ronda jambe — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 14:37:15 +0000

A cool February indicates weather variation, not climate.
This week’s Economist, hardly a radical source, also notes the findings from Copenhagen that sea levels are rising twice as fast as predicted just 2 years ago.
These are presumably based on observations, not models.
And who is to say climate can vary so much regionally?
Now this doesn’t mean that climate change is accelerating, but perhaps it means that our understanding of it has erred on the side of being too conservative.
Who exactly says climate change is slowing?

By: Q&A

Q&A — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:16:52 +0000

Ronda,
Global warming has not “accelerated”.
Nevertheless, it is wrong to assume global warming has stopped … as anyone expert in climate time series analysis will attest.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
It never ceases to amaze me why some people think global warming means an increase in temperatures every year or it has stopped because some regions experience a very cold winter.
The Earth’s climate system is complex (that is not to say we know nothing) and does of course include natural variability.
However, no one (not even Roy Spencer) has been able to explain the gradual increase in global warming since the 1800′s without including the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Graham says “the Antarctic peninsula issues are to do with regional climate and have no demonstrated connection to global warming.”
I’m not sure what he is trying to say here, particularly when polar amplification is exacerbated and is demonstrably connected to global warming by air and ocean currents.
Of course there are regions (all over the world) that are experiencing the impacts of a warmer and wetter world, some more so than others …the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (and S.E. Australia) just one case in point.
It’s worth repeating … recent research (unable to be included in the AR4) that has been reviewed and published (since AR4) shows that the original IPCC estimates have been understated. This can be garnered from the reports and papers (1600 +) presented at the science meeting in Copenhagen last week. Not all based on models, I would add.

By: Graham Young

Graham Young — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 08:25:55 +0000

Ronda, none of the links you give support the contention that climate change has accelerated. According to one February was the coldest for almost 10 years, which is not an acceleration, and is also not what the IPCC models predict.
The one on sea level increase is a prediction based on models, so not factual at all.
The Antarctic peninsula issues are to do with regional climate and have no demonstrated connection to global warming.
So the only evidence you have given me supports a slow-down in global warming rather than an acceleration.

By: ronda jambe

ronda jambe — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 06:46:17 +0000

and one more, these guys can’t all be mugs:
SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING POSES THREAT TO NEW YORK CITY
Global warming is expected to cause the sea level along the northeastern US coast to rise almost twice as fast as global sea levels during this century, putting New York City at greater risk for damage from hurricanes and winter storm surge, according to a new study.
– full story > http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090315155112.htm

By: ronda jambe

ronda jambe — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 06:44:29 +0000

info:
Here’s a bit more NINTH WARMEST FEBRUARY FOR GLOBE, NOAA
The combined global land and ocean surface average temperature for February 2009 was the ninth warmest since records began in 1880, according to an analysis by NOAA.
– full story > http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090315092035.htm