Comments on: Remedial maths for Danna Vale

By: John Richardson

John Richardson — Mon, 20 Feb 2006 21:35:09 +0000

You don’t need to be a statistician or mathematician to see that the numbers simply donâ€™t stand-up.
According to the ABS, Australiaâ€™s current population is approximately 20.5 million, of which less than 310,000 are Muslim.
If half that number are women, who each produce four children, there will be 62O,OOO children. If all these children are female & they also produce four children each, there would be nearly 2.5 million more. Assuming that no Muslim woman in the 3rd generation gives birth before turning 18, then the total number of children produced over 50 years would be 3.1 million.
To be conservative, let’s also assume that no Australian Muslims perish over the next 50 years. Also, given that the immigration intake & population mix remains constant, then the next 50 years will see less than 116,000 new Muslims arrive in Australia.
On this basis the estimated total of Australian Muslim population will become roughly 3,500,000 by 2056.
Meantime, the annual birth rate in Australia is almost 250,000. Assuming that 155,000 of those are Muslim born, non-Muslim births would be around 95,000 annually.
If we assume that the non-Muslim birth rate only applies for 8 years out of the next 50 years, then only 760,000 non-Muslim children will be born in that period. Then, to be ultra-conservative, letâ€™s assume that the annual death rate of 135,000 is ALL Non-Muslim & remains constant for 50 years. Total deaths of Non-Muslim people would be nearly 7 million.
With non-Muslim arrivals running at 151,690 people per year, there will be 7,584,500 new citizens added over 50 years.
So, in 50 Years time it would seem that Australiaâ€™s total population will be about 25 million (in-line with the ABS projection for 2050), of whom 14% will be members of the Muslim minority group.
Unless Danna is expecting the Australian population to undergo a wholesale religious conversion over the next 50 years 14% hardly constitutes a ” Muslim Nation.”
As they’d say in America ” Do the math, Danna, do the math “.

By: Yobbo

Yobbo — Mon, 20 Feb 2006 18:14:21 +0000

And this also assumes that none of those kids will grow up to be agnostic or atheist. A pretty big assumption I would think. I have more than a couple of friends with Muslim names who drink alcohol and don’t pray to Allah.

By: rossco

rossco — Mon, 20 Feb 2006 15:26:30 +0000

Thanks Graham.
Sometimes you think you must be crazy because the flaw in Danna et als argument appears so flawed but no one is really attacking the maths. So it is pleasing to get some support.
I know there are a few assumptions in my argument but I did study economics many years ago.
Any chance of getting this out to a broader audience?

By: Graham Young

Graham Young — Mon, 20 Feb 2006 14:09:36 +0000

I think you’re right Rossco – I’ve over-estimated the number of potential Muslim babies because I’ve assumed that all Muslim women are of child-bearing age and have yet to have a family, and I’ve worked my .68 off the total population rather than the half or so that will be female. Just makes Danna’s assertion even more ludicrous!

By: alfred

alfred — Mon, 20 Feb 2006 13:35:20 +0000

BLACK ARCHBISHOP SLAMS MULTICULTURALISM AND URGES BRITONS TO BE PROUD OF THEIR HISTORY
Britain’s first black archbishop has launched a forceful attack on multiculturalism which, he argues, has denied English people the right to celebrate their history and national identity.
Soon-to-be Archbishop of York, John Sentamu, who was a judge in Uganda, told the UK Times: “Multiculturalism has seemed to imply, wrongly for me, that we should allow other cultures to express themselves but not let the majority culture at all tell us its glories, its struggles, its joys and its pains.”
“I speak as a foreigner,” he said. “The English are somehow embarrassed about some of the good things they have done. They have done some terrible things, but not all the empire was a bad idea. Because the empire has gone there is almost the sense in which there is not a big idea that drives this nation.” He also warned that England would only experience further political extremism if it failed to reconnect with its roots.
“When you ask a lot of people in this country, ‘What is English culture?’ they are very vague. It is a culture that whether we like it or not has given us parliamentary democracy. It is the mother of it. It is the mother of arguing that if you want a change of government, you vote them in or you vote them out.”
Source: Breaking Christian News Same here in OZ

By: rossco

rossco — Mon, 20 Feb 2006 12:01:35 +0000

I am not a demographer or a mathmetician, but I am a baby boomer. My thoughts on the maths are along this line. We currently have a population of around 20 million of whom around 300 000 are Muslim. Asssume a 50/50 split on gender which makes 150 000 females. Assume half of those women are of child bearing age which gives us 75 000 potential mothers. Assume half of those have completed their families. That would give us a pool of around 37 500 Muslim women currently who are possibly going to have children in the next few years.
I can’t do the maths but I can’t see any possibility of that pool resulting in 10 million plus Muslims in Australia any time soon, even in 50 years. And that is assuming that the total population doesn’t keep increasing at the same rate.
Any thoughts from mathmeticians out there?